Accurate forecasts of a changing climate may not be enough to predict future risk from disease vectors, as the vectors themselves are always changing. In other words, seeing into the future is complicated.This was the takeaway in a joint paper authored by Andrea Egizi, a 2014 Ph.D. graduate of the Rutgers’ ecology and evolution graduate program, Nina Fefferman, associate professor in the Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources and Dina Fonseca, professor in the Department of Entomology. Both departments are part of the School of Environmental and Biological Sciences at Rutgers… Their findings challenge many predictive models used in projections of vector-borne disease risk that consider only the vector’s current temperature optima in order to predict where it could occur in the future. This is often due to an assumption that vector evolution happens much more slowly than the rate at which the climate is changing.
/ / / Evolution of Disease Vectors Makes It Difficult to Predict Impact on Human Health